It's been a brilliantly close 6 Nations so far, with 4 teams level on 4 points after 3 games. After this weekend, that 4 will (probably) have been whittled down to at least 3 and possibly 2, depending on how useless the French continue to be (maybe). In a year that has perpetually defied the sagest of predictions it seems almost churlish to carry on, but here we go anyway.
Italy v Ireland
A potentially title-deciding tie if the Irish have their try-scoring hats on, it's very hard to see Joe Schmidts mean slipping up against Italy in Dublin, where they saw off Wales so impressively. While they will have been disappointed not to beat England it's not as if they played badly, and with points difference looking like it might be crucial expect the Irish to come out with all pints of Guinness blazing. Johnny Sexton has been confirmed as fit and starting, which is obviously a boost, and if Peter O'Mahony's absence will be felt at least it's at blindside, not opensi... Sean O'Brien's still injured, is he? Well the breakdowns might be interesting, then. Especially seeing as Parisse always seems to be in several places at once on rugby fields. He's like some sort of bald Michael J Fox.
Italy have been pretty good and extremely unlucky in all their games, especially against Scotland, where a Wilkinson-esque drop-goal in red dead time from Duncan Weir denied them a win that everyone had backed them to get. Though they've not been exactly setting the world alight, they have definitely displayed a greater sense of cohesion amongst the backs and were displaying far more ambition and attacking acumen than Scotland until the two met in Rome. Will their incessant pluckiness be enough to get a result in Dublin? Probably not. Especially with Ireland chasing the title on potential points difference. Did I mention that last bit?
Prediction: Ireland by 14, probably more.
Scotland v France
I could literally write entire blogs on the respective coaches of these two teams, if I a) had the time and b) was a psychologist of some description. I'm not, though, so it would be silly to try and second guess the inner thought processes of two guys who have had far more experience of international rugby than me and have so far exhibited all the selectorial and tactical competence of a knife-wielding baboon being presented with the original manuscript of War and Peace and the pitch for TOWIE before being asked to make a decision. Scott Johnson has, to date, sacked his captain, accused the replacement debutant of naivety, dropped his best ball-carrying forward, left out one of the few world-class players at his disposal, recalled his captain, claimed that black is white, cried wolf, mused on the merits or otherwise of bikinis and replaced the Murrayfield pitch with what appears to be Kendle Mint Cake. I have no idea what Scotland's game plan will be and can not for the life of me muster a prediction as to form, because he's changed a load of his team.
Phillipe St Andre, meanwhile, has thus far played his best player out of position for three years, stuck by a 10 with the game management qualities of a drunk goldfish, complained about the attitude of the French clubs, complained about the attitude of his No. 8, dropped his No. 8, flown in the face of decades of French rugby playing tradition, picked wingers on the basis of their Grandads being a bit handy and replaced the Stade Francais pitch with something that looks suspiciously like Brie. Watching the French last week was like watching a bunch of kids with only a dim grasp of the rules having a bash with blindfolds on. They can't possibly be that bad again, can they? No idea, because he's changed - literally - more than half his team.
Prediction: You're having a laugh, right?
England v Wales
Now we get to it. If we accept - and I am doing - that Ireland are almost certainly going to beat Italy and that the French points tally/being-a-bit-crap all but rules them out, then these two are battling it out for the right to challenge for the Championship. After the leek-handed mauling England suffered last year, they will be out there aiming to choke a few daffodils on a rose bush on their home patch and, if the Ireland game is anything to go by, it will be edge-of-the-seat, finger-chewing stuff. Under Stuart Lancaster, England have gone from absolutely nowhere after the last world cup, to being damn difficult to beat, to suddenly being a force to be reckoned with. The backline looks the most threatening it has since the days of the Wilkinson-Greenwood axis, with Tuilagi still to come back and Owen Farrell continuing to improve.
Wales, on the other hand, started the tournament looking like they'd rather be back in Australia. On the beach. Having a lie down. Cows with tetanus have been observed in more energetic fits of ball-playing. Maybe. Anyway, they were definitely better against France (although they would have done bloody well to lose against that lot) and having Jonathan Davies back means they have a potential right-foot/left-foot midfield kicking option to try and wrong-foot the so-far imperious Mike Brown with. As with Ireland, they travel to Twickenham with a team chock full of experience and game-playing nous attempting to shoot down Englands young guns. With Roiman Poite set to ref Wales will fancy their chances at the scrum, an area England got away with against Ireland by dint of losing the ones they lost deep in Irish territory. They still lost too many.
England will be looking to go out and prove that their pack is far tougher in the loose these days, after the pounding they took in Cardiff. Expect it to be ferocious up front. Actually, England could do worse than watch the Ireland game and maul them into the ground - even Ireland didn't fancy taking on the English at that game. When was the last time you saw a team defend a maul by stepping off? (As a side note: that definitely happened. I tried to find it on a replay of the game but failed and I couldn't be fussed watching the whole thing. The idea is to step everyone back from the maul at the setting up point when the line-out hits the floor - instead of piling defenders in - causing the attacking side to collapse under their own shove against thin air, looking a bit silly in the process. The reason you don't see it is because it's against to so-called 'spirit of the game'. In the incident in question, England kept their shape, walked forward and pulled Ireland into the maul anyway. Trust me.)
Prediction: Reverse mockers worked last time: Wales by 5.
Italy v Ireland
A potentially title-deciding tie if the Irish have their try-scoring hats on, it's very hard to see Joe Schmidts mean slipping up against Italy in Dublin, where they saw off Wales so impressively. While they will have been disappointed not to beat England it's not as if they played badly, and with points difference looking like it might be crucial expect the Irish to come out with all pints of Guinness blazing. Johnny Sexton has been confirmed as fit and starting, which is obviously a boost, and if Peter O'Mahony's absence will be felt at least it's at blindside, not opensi... Sean O'Brien's still injured, is he? Well the breakdowns might be interesting, then. Especially seeing as Parisse always seems to be in several places at once on rugby fields. He's like some sort of bald Michael J Fox.
Italy have been pretty good and extremely unlucky in all their games, especially against Scotland, where a Wilkinson-esque drop-goal in red dead time from Duncan Weir denied them a win that everyone had backed them to get. Though they've not been exactly setting the world alight, they have definitely displayed a greater sense of cohesion amongst the backs and were displaying far more ambition and attacking acumen than Scotland until the two met in Rome. Will their incessant pluckiness be enough to get a result in Dublin? Probably not. Especially with Ireland chasing the title on potential points difference. Did I mention that last bit?
Prediction: Ireland by 14, probably more.
Scotland v France
I could literally write entire blogs on the respective coaches of these two teams, if I a) had the time and b) was a psychologist of some description. I'm not, though, so it would be silly to try and second guess the inner thought processes of two guys who have had far more experience of international rugby than me and have so far exhibited all the selectorial and tactical competence of a knife-wielding baboon being presented with the original manuscript of War and Peace and the pitch for TOWIE before being asked to make a decision. Scott Johnson has, to date, sacked his captain, accused the replacement debutant of naivety, dropped his best ball-carrying forward, left out one of the few world-class players at his disposal, recalled his captain, claimed that black is white, cried wolf, mused on the merits or otherwise of bikinis and replaced the Murrayfield pitch with what appears to be Kendle Mint Cake. I have no idea what Scotland's game plan will be and can not for the life of me muster a prediction as to form, because he's changed a load of his team.
Phillipe St Andre, meanwhile, has thus far played his best player out of position for three years, stuck by a 10 with the game management qualities of a drunk goldfish, complained about the attitude of the French clubs, complained about the attitude of his No. 8, dropped his No. 8, flown in the face of decades of French rugby playing tradition, picked wingers on the basis of their Grandads being a bit handy and replaced the Stade Francais pitch with something that looks suspiciously like Brie. Watching the French last week was like watching a bunch of kids with only a dim grasp of the rules having a bash with blindfolds on. They can't possibly be that bad again, can they? No idea, because he's changed - literally - more than half his team.
Prediction: You're having a laugh, right?
England v Wales
Now we get to it. If we accept - and I am doing - that Ireland are almost certainly going to beat Italy and that the French points tally/being-a-bit-crap all but rules them out, then these two are battling it out for the right to challenge for the Championship. After the leek-handed mauling England suffered last year, they will be out there aiming to choke a few daffodils on a rose bush on their home patch and, if the Ireland game is anything to go by, it will be edge-of-the-seat, finger-chewing stuff. Under Stuart Lancaster, England have gone from absolutely nowhere after the last world cup, to being damn difficult to beat, to suddenly being a force to be reckoned with. The backline looks the most threatening it has since the days of the Wilkinson-Greenwood axis, with Tuilagi still to come back and Owen Farrell continuing to improve.
Wales, on the other hand, started the tournament looking like they'd rather be back in Australia. On the beach. Having a lie down. Cows with tetanus have been observed in more energetic fits of ball-playing. Maybe. Anyway, they were definitely better against France (although they would have done bloody well to lose against that lot) and having Jonathan Davies back means they have a potential right-foot/left-foot midfield kicking option to try and wrong-foot the so-far imperious Mike Brown with. As with Ireland, they travel to Twickenham with a team chock full of experience and game-playing nous attempting to shoot down Englands young guns. With Roiman Poite set to ref Wales will fancy their chances at the scrum, an area England got away with against Ireland by dint of losing the ones they lost deep in Irish territory. They still lost too many.
England will be looking to go out and prove that their pack is far tougher in the loose these days, after the pounding they took in Cardiff. Expect it to be ferocious up front. Actually, England could do worse than watch the Ireland game and maul them into the ground - even Ireland didn't fancy taking on the English at that game. When was the last time you saw a team defend a maul by stepping off? (As a side note: that definitely happened. I tried to find it on a replay of the game but failed and I couldn't be fussed watching the whole thing. The idea is to step everyone back from the maul at the setting up point when the line-out hits the floor - instead of piling defenders in - causing the attacking side to collapse under their own shove against thin air, looking a bit silly in the process. The reason you don't see it is because it's against to so-called 'spirit of the game'. In the incident in question, England kept their shape, walked forward and pulled Ireland into the maul anyway. Trust me.)
Prediction: Reverse mockers worked last time: Wales by 5.
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