Ashton Pays the Price of High Risk, High Reward Play

International rugby can be tough. In fact, if you have a moment, it can be as tough as a pair of extremely old boots, made from the hide of the world heavyweight cow-boxing champion, fitted with steel toes and packed off to boot camp in Siberia for 6 weeks. It is not for the faint-hearted and, while the rewards can be great, mistakes are rarely tolerated. Like all professional sport, it's high risk, high reward.

Two men who have recently been dealt a reminder of this - to their cost - are Ben Youngs and Chris Ashton, who will both be wondering where it went wrong. Both are in their mid-20s, far from retirement age, and both were key members of the side that won England's only 6 Nations title since 2003. Indeed, one of them was responsible for one of the best tries Twickenham has ever been privileged enough to witness. And yet neither will be involved in England's opening game of the 6 Nations in Paris this weekend. In a squad where experience is at a premium and in a ground where opposition teams usually get the kind of greeting associated with a wasps nest, it perhaps says it all that you will not hear any England fans complaining about the decision. Actually, you're more likely to find them applauding.

Ashton first: since he sparkled, dazzled and swan-dived his way into England fans hearts 4 years ago, the man has simply become a liability. He hasn't looked leaky in defence so much as free-flowing, gallantly waving attackers past with a swing of his arms worthy of Bolero while, 2 miles away back towards his own try line, the rest of the defence attempts to cover a 15 metre gulf on England's right flank. Flying out the line and hitting your man hard can work and gain precious metres, but it's high risk, high reward, and Ashton hardly ever reaps the rewards. 

Of course, such defensive lapses might be forgiven if his try scoring was equally prolific, but the tries have dried up. His last two, against Argentina and the All Blacks, have come either when England were totally dominant or when Tuilagi had single-handedly mauled a defence into submission. Both times, it would have been difficult for a blind 5-year-old with no feet and one arm NOT to score, so it would have been bloody worrying if Ashton had mucked it up. On top of this, in recent times he has also shown a troubling propensity to offload into thin air, often inside his own half and without bothering to examine the air a touch more closely first, whereupon he might have noticed the absence of a white shirt and thought better of it. This, rather than speeding up England's attacking play (which is the whole point of offloading) slows it down considerably because someone then has to secure the ball on the floor, and any momentum is lost. Again, high risk, and no visible rewards to speak of. No, Ashton had to go.

Ben Youngs has had an even quicker fall from grace. England's first choice scrum-half in the last 6N played for the Lions in the summer and did little wrong, though he couldn't force his way into the test team. This is a different kind of dropping: it's not that Youngs needs to be got rid of, it's that England have better players in his position. Lee Dickson, Richard Wigglesworth and (though I'm not a fan. Remember this? (Keep watching for Martin Johnsons reaction)) Danny Care have all been playing better than him, it's as simple as that. Add the fact, England's best play of the autumn by some distance came in the first half versus Argentina, when the Northampton axis of Hartley, Lawes, Wood and Dickson formed the link between forwards and backs and provided the quick ball England so desperately crave, and there is simply no room for Youngs.

This, incidentally, is a problem that Wales would love to have. The fact often cited is how much bigger England's player base is than the other home unions, and certainly having a Lion as your fourth choice in any position is somewhat luxurious. Whilst Wales starting XV oozes world class in almost every position, and has an excellent replacement waiting in the squad, arguably their problem position is the fly-half berth. Dan Biggar doesn't look convincing, Gatland patently does not trust James Hook as far as he could throw him and Rhys Priestland, the incumbent, provided a stark insight into his decision making abilities against Australia in the autumn when, with Wales needing a try and the clock dead, he kicked the ball into touch.

It was a high risk, high reward punt. And as Chris Ashton will him, that can quite easily cost you your place in the team. 

6 Nations Preview

With the Northern Hemisphere's premier annual 15-a-side mud-wrestling competition a mere 5 days hence, here is my take on the teams and what we can expect from the next 2 months:

England

The plucky bulldogs with the world's least inspiring national anthem go into this years action with a pack that could see off your average bison, and a back line that currently features at least 3 plain black face-shapes stuck above a white rugby shirt. In the absence of the stereotypically Englishly-named Manu Tuilagi (a man who deems playing with one ear a minor inconvenience and ran over Dan Carter and Richie McCaw like a rhino would your Grandmas cat) England resemble a line of donkeys led by lions, and need to find the right try-conjuring combination quickly if their chances are not to take an early dent in Paris on the first weekend. Although, as we shall see, the French are doing their best to help them out. 

With the home World Cup looming ever closer they will be hoping to at least match their increasingly-habitual silver medals, and with the cricket and football going like they are represent perhaps the only chance for Anglo-Saxons to get excited about a team-based ball-fumbling for the foreseeable future. Coach Stuart Lancaster (hired in order to lend credence to the teams red-rose badge. All that remains is to find top-level rugby coaches with the names 'Feathers', 'Clover', 'Thistle', 'Flag' and 'Cock') has proven himself adept at selection decisions, but any more injuries to the back line and he'll be wondering if Stuart Barnes and Will Greenwood can be tempted away from Sky for a few games.

Key Man: Owen Farrell
Key Injury: Manu Tuilagi
Prediction: First

France

Indisputably the most prodigious talent-wasters in world rugby, the French have a proud tradition of stealing defeats in the face of adversity that stretches back to Agincourt. Blessed with an absurd amount of breathtakingly skilled backs and an even absurder number of carved stone Easter Island giants willing to play in the forwards, coach Phillipe St-Andre tries to make it a level playing field each year by picking the forwards with the fewest number of brain cells and playing his backs out of position. Last year his tactics worked so well that the field was rather more level than he had expected, and France finished bottom of the pile. This year the selectorial incompetence has started even earlier than usual, with the decision to pick only one recognised fly-half in a squad of 26 being fully vindicated by said fly-half getting injured BEFORE the squad had been picked. Honestly, you couldn't write it. 

The rugby gods move in mysterious ways, however, and the French have one crucial ingredient on their side: the date. Since rugby union turned professional, there has only ever been one winner of the 5/6 nations immediately after a Lions tour. This could be down to a number of things: player knackeration in the 4 home unions, French mopiness at being left out, jealousy at the Lions having a far more manly animal as an emblem, it matters not. The facts remain that they have, as ever, a supremely talented group of players and, if they can just resist the big red button for one year, history is on their side.

Key Man: Wesley Fofana (finally playing at centre)
Key Injury: Thierry Dusatoir
Prediction: First

Ireland

If the 6 Nations was decided on the best single performance every year, you'd probably back the men in green. Even last year, when they finished 2nd from bottom, they beat eventual winners Wales on the first weekend. Whilst not quite taking under-achievement to the same dizzy heights as their Gallic counterparts, there is a feeling over the water that they have not done themselves justice and this year they will be out to make sure that Brian O'Driscoll has a much nicer send-off than Ronan O'Gara, who was simply left in a motorway services outside Edinburgh after failing miserably and sometimes spectacularly to turn the capitulation against Scotland around a year ago. 

Like every other team the Irish have gamely supplied an injured key-man in Sean O'Brien, but there's no denying the wily cunning and ample experience boasted by the likes of O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell and Jamie Heaslip. With live wire and Lionel Messi-impersonator Simon Zebo getting game time against the England Saxons at the weekend on his way back from injury to boot you simply cannot rule the Irish out, especially when they play in their ridiculously-proportioned home stadium in Dublin. Throw in their near-decimation of the All Blacks and you have a team to be reckoned with. However, when you consider their time-defying submission to the All Blacks, can they really be trusted to get the results?

Key Man: O'Connell, O'Driscoll, Sexton, Heaslip, take your pick
Key Injury: Sean O'Brien
Prediction: First 

Italy

Some numbers for you: since Italy joined the 5 nations and forced it to be re-named (somewhat unimaginatively, it has to be said) they have played 70 games. They have won 11 of those games, with 6 of those 11 wins coming against Scotland, and they have a points difference in the tournament of -1179.

This is mostly to prove I'm capable of actual research, but even so, you don't have to live in Baker St to work out that the Azurri's chances would not look good if, say, they were on trial for mass murder. Despite enjoying arguably their best tournament ever last year, old weaknesses (such as not being able to score on a regular basis) remain and do not look like disappearing soon either, clinging on like some kind of big clingy thing. 

Still, to examine more closely the silvery bit on the edge of the Roman cloud, in players like Sergio Parisse and Martin Castrogiovanni they have players of genuine world class. Although, to zoom in even further, those guys are 30 and 32 respectively, so how long they stick around for may be an area of some conjecture. On the whole, though, it is in the back division where the Italians fail to pull their weight, and it is difficult to see them winning on a regular basis until they can produce some good play makers.

Key Man: Whoever plays at 10
Key Injury: None, and it's a good job too
Prediction: Last

Scotland

There seems to be genuine optimism around the Scottish camp this year, although you can say that most years and their poorly disguised tactic of infesting their pitch with boot-eating beasties and being the only team to turn up wearing clogs may be mitigated by their habit of holding an all-consuming bonfire next to the pitch before every game. Temporarily led by bikini-loving, statistic-hating Aussie Scott Johnson, it remains to be seen if the wily Wallaby can inject any antipodean dazzle to a determinedly stodgy back line. 

Indeed, Scotland's problems seem to be much the same as Italy's, with the small (I say small, he's 6 foot) exception of a certain Stuart Hogg. While Scotland's pack contains enough bump and grind (not to mention the effervescently-haired Richie Gray and iron-eyebrowed Kelly 'It's a Boys Name' Brown) to take on most other teams up front, a lot will depend on Hogg's ability to inspire his team mates into scoring some tries, a task which would probably have proved far easier had Tim Visser not come down with an acute case of having a buggered leg. Throw in only 2 home games this year (against England and France) and it may be that Scotland's best chance of avoiding the wooden spoon may be the aforementioned bonfire. 

Key Man: Stuart Hogg
Key Injury: Tim Visser
Prediction: Last

Wales

Lastly but certainly not leastly come the Welshists. Since discovering fire in 2011 and the wheel several months later, the shepherds have gone from strength to strength with caves the length and breadth of the land being turned inside-out to uncover the finest in egg-chucking trollery that the vales have to offer. Indeed, ever since Sam Warburton learned what constituted a dangerous tackle (apparently) (utter nonsense) (check this one out) in an ill-fated but understandable attempt to rearrange Vincent Clerc's ribcage the Welsh have been as indestructible against Northern Hemisphere opposition as they have been useless against anyone else, with the Lions effort ballasted by Englishmen in the pack and an Irishman pulling the strings at 10. That should not distract, however, from some monumental performances in recent times by the likes of Toby Faletau (who is as Welsh as Tuilagi is English) and, increasingly, George North, who not only has no truck with the concept of a tackle but will get his Dad to beat you up if you stop him from scoring. 

Not all has been rosy in the land of someone-else's fathers just recently however, with a bitter dispute about who should have the money and/or control of Welsh rugby being fought out between the Welsh Rugby Union and the four regions (or clubs, if you're not deluded). This has boiled over more times than Iceland with the WRUs small-business acumen recently being called into question by the chairman of the Cardiff Blues. Can off-field shenanigans put the all-conquering 6 Nations machine off its stupidly large stride? Or will George North simply pick the WRU up and carry it along on his back away to Northampton? Recent history would suggest the latter, although no country has won the SIX nations three years on the bounce.
Key Man: Sam Warburton
Key Injury: Ryan Jones
Prediction: First

So there you have it. We're less than a week away from the first games now and you get the feeling that, over 8 gruelling weeks, as much will depend on the top teams keeping their best players fit and the weather (as always) as much as anything else. If all else fails, revised scrum engagements should prevent this from happening again, and overall it will be a surprise if more tries are not scored all round. Come what may, I hope you enjoy one of the few major sporting events left to free-to-air telly, and may the best team win.

As long as that team isn't Wales.