England
'Crisis? What crisis?' was the incredulous assessment of
Italy coach Connor O'Shea, who would kill for a team that could have 18
(potentially) (since confirmed as a number lower than 18) absentees and still field 8 British Lions. England's problem
isn't necessarily the number of injuries as the number of injuries in 2
positions, however; for all their depth they are one more injury away from
starting they're 6th choice (at best) loose-head in the 6 nations. Given the
impact that could potentially have - especially at scrums - and Eddie Jones
could be forgiven for hiring a squad of ex-special services bodyguards to
shadow Mako Vunipola until Joe Marler's latest suspension expires.
The back row looks easier to cover, with Simmonds in
rampaging-tiger form for Exeter and Underhill looking good in the autumn until
he decided to head-but an Argentinean hip. Itoje and Lawes have both played 6.
It is the front row, the Irish and Murrayfield that are the obvious banana
skins on the way to a 3rd successive title.
France
It feels like every year I have to upgrade the sentence
'they can't possibly be any more of a mess than they are now'. France, who have
very much been the France of post-millennial rugby, could buy Trump tower with
the money in their league. The shame is their team looks increasingly like his
government, they play alternative rugby (POLITICS JOKE!!)
and generally make a total hash of it. They were lucky to draw with Japan,
and this lead to the unceremonial guillotining of then coach Guy Noves along
with the unceremonial dropping of most of the team. Apparently now, they've found this amazing 19 year old fly-half who would be the saviour of Gallic egg-chasing, but he can't be because they run the game from 9.
Their problems now include but are not limited to: not
knowing their best team, not having a game plan, having a new coach, not having
as much training time with their team as other nations and away trips to
Scotland and Wales. The smart money is on a recall for Frederick Michalak and a
resurgence of Racing's bow-tie kit. Complete with champagne at half time. Would
anyone be surprised?
Ireland
If England are leading the 'my injury list is bigger than
yours' competition, other teams with less depth are also feeling the pinch and
Ireland have problems of their own. The current toll sits at 11, with Sean O'Brien,
Jamie Heaslip and Gary Ringrose among those keeping physio's benches warm.
Though Ireland beat England last year and played a full part
in helping the Lions to not-lose against New Zealand, their away form in the 6N
has been poor in much the same way that Mark Zuckerberg isn't. I.e. very. Ireland
have 3 matches at home but play England at Twickenham, on the last day of the
tournament, and quite what the state of either side will be by then is anyone's
guess. I've not played loose-head before but I'll be keeping my boots (which I
haven't yet bought) handy.
Italy
One of 2 traditional 'easy' games for the bigger nations in
this tournament, Italy were slightly later than Scotland in restructuring their
domestic game in an attempt to benefit the national side. This all comes from
the top-down: Connor O'Shea is not just running the national side but all of
Italian rugby. Treviso have become Benetton, and passion is now being allied
with cautious optimism.
The question remaining is how long it will take for results
to make it back from Stadio Olympico with any consistency. You can't win games
without quality players and unfortunately, on paper at least, Italy are simply
the worst team in the tournament (despite having the best food. Hands down. I
will brook no argument; France can do one.) Despite this, O'Shea has warned that
his side will not die wondering, and scribes and scholars the rugby world over
have been up late into the winter evenings, pouring over the laws by
candlelight to try and find the next 'no offside line' loophole that will make
England look like dicks for 40 minutes.
Scotland
Injury news: Scotland have injuries. Specially in the front
row, where no short of 8 part-rhinoceroses will not be locking horns with
anyone else any time soon. Scottish ambition has moved on in the last 5 years,
however. After a decade of watching forwards repeatedly batter at the line 5
metres out and get no closer, someone suggested that the backs might like to
have a crack. And it turns out they're a bit handy.
The biggest statement of pre-tournament intent from
Edinburgh has come in the naming of the captain: not Greig Laidlaw, but John
Barclay. Extrapolating from basic principles leads you to the conclusion that
Laidlaw will not be starting at 9, with live-wire and Finn Russell club-mate
Ali Price looking favourite. All the backline now has a very Glasgow feel to
it, and they can do things like this (skip to 1:35):
Make no mistake, Scotland will have a say on who wins this tournament, one way or another.
Wales
Injury news: yes. Warburton, Lydiate, Davies, Biggar, Webb,
Faletau. Wales have also expanded their ambition but there has always been the
suspicion that the team hadn't quite settled into it, or perhaps that selection
was one or two players awry. Some scintillating running - most notably against
New Zealand away - has been mixed up with being, well, er, iffy. Offloading to fresh air and the like. With their first
3 matches against Scotland, England and Ireland, the fear amongst Welsh fans
will be that their title challenge will be over before it has begun.
That said, you never write them off. If Glasgow have been
good in Scotland, the Scarlets have been excellent in Wales. The talent is
there for Warren Gatland if he can harness it, with the likes of Rhys Patchell
looking to make a name for himself on a bigger stage. If some of the relatively
inexperienced players can shine this far out from the World Cup, the attrition
rate may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for more than one nation.
Predictions
Most are billing this as a 2 horse race between England and Ireland, egged on by World Rugby rankings that mean about as much as a French limerick. France usually win after a Lions year but look a shambles. Wales are always dangerous but have suffered from a lack of confidence in recent years. Can Scotland do better than their 3 wins last year? When trying to seriously predict a winner it is tough to look beyond the final day showdown between England and Ireland, but as this tournament has delighted in stuffing predictions up peoples noses for years, stick your money on Scotland. You'll get better odds.
(England will win.)
(England will win.)
