Six Nations Annual Preview/Piss Take

Another year, another January of whiling away hours, staring listlessly out of windows, moaning at rain and counting down the until the 6 Nations starts. Well, January is over. February is here, and with it comes the annual blood-letting, amateur dentistry and tribal warfare that constitutes Europe’s premier Rugby tournament.

So England, Scotland and Wales probably won’t be allowed to play anymore. (Get them in early.)

There is added spice this year with state of rugby itself in flux. The World Cup proved to be the watershed that snapped the Northern Hemisphere out of its defend-and-kick, win-by-not-losing attitude. Kicking 21 points is not enough to stop New Zealand scoring 5 tries, never has been, and sides have reacted accordingly. Bonus points are in, with the caveat that a grand-slam still takes all. Fly halves are small again, which is a bugger for the likes of Courtney Lawes aiming to rattle a few rib cages, as you can now expect to be sin-binned for the heinous crime of playing rugby.

Much has been written elsewhere – and at great length – about the new tackle laws, or new punishments to laws that have always existed, or whatever else these things are. I will limit myself to the observations that: 1, players have been sent off when they previously would not have conceded a penalty, so clearly something has changed despite Wayne Barnes' protestations to the contrary, and 2, that placing 100% of the responsibility for the outcome of contact on the tackler is nonsensical and unfair when the bloke with the ball is trying to step, weave, jink, dodge, duck, dip, dive or dodge around him. There are plenty of instances when it’s the ball carriers fault that contact becomes potentially concussive.

Preamble done. Let’s take a shufty at the runners and riders, shall we? Alphabetically (See, I’m not biased.):

1. England

One year and 13 games unbeaten under Eddie Jones (+1 under the outgoing Stuart Lancaster) represents the best record of any 6 Nation going into the tournament by some margin, even if England were, at times, playing an Australia side that displayed the game management qualities of week-old trifle. 'About bloody time!' the Englishmen cry. 'He's Donald Trump!' retorts Jim Telfer, which even for him is a bit strong. I've been unable, despite extensive* research, to unearth an interview where he compared Clive Woodward to Hitler and Martin Johnson to Goebbels, but I'm sure it's out there. England have been hit by the traditional one-side-cops-for-it injury curse this year, but also have the depth to cope with that the best, and a back row of Itoje-Hughes-Wood isn't bad for a completely different one to last year. They will need to start well against a (Possibly. I mean, who knows really?) resurgent France but folk are already talking about the last game, against Ireland, as the one that will decide the champions. Certainly their new-found ability to win from any position, like 20-odd nil down against Australia inside 10 minutes, will be tested to the max in Dublin.

*I did no research.

2. France

Resurgent, I said. Did I? Yes. Should have beaten Australia in the Autumn. Could have beaten New Zealand. But then... they didn't. Anyone who watches the Heineken Cup - whatever that's called now - will know that Clermont are flying, but also that Wesley Fofana, actually playing in his right position, has been a big part of that in a superb midfield. Do they possess the wherewithal to take on England at Twickenham without their catalyst? Maybe. They certainly pose more of a threat on turnover ball than when a certain Basteraud was* blundering around the midfield like a lost bison: a props body trapped in a centres shirt, with all the passing acumen and attacking vision of a pigs dismembered trotter. France have 3 away games, with England and Ireland being two of those and representing perhaps the toughest fixtures around. You'd be a brave man to bet on them, but then, as always, bloody anything could happen with them.

*I've not actually seen the French line-up: Basteraud might be playing for all I know. I hope he is.

3. Ireland

If anything, people seem more convinced by Ireland than England. Some of the quality of their rugby in the autumn was breathtaking, admittedly, and any side that beats New Zealand is to be taken with the same seriousness as a rabid shark. They will be without Sexton and O'Mahony for their opening game (away to Scotland) which won't help the bid to get off to a flyer. Can they maintain the momentum, gained in no small part from the tragic death of Anthony Foley during the Autumn, all the way through a 6 Nations? Connor Murray is a key player whom the opposition will look to target and disrupt*, and a large part of Ireland's chances will depend on their ability to keep both first-choice half-backs on the field. A more-than-decent Scotland also present a large, if dark blue, banana skin first up. It may well be that I am simply trying to convince myself. Is Henshaw fit?

*For 'disrupt', read 'injure early on'.

4. Italy

I love Italy. In fact, if England don't win, I hope Italy do. Their country is amazing, they have the best food hands-down* and Sergio Parisse bloody well deserves it. I mean, seriously, the man is a machine. 2003 he started. 2003! All the chat after last year was whether or not Italy even deserved to be in this tournament. That discussion is still, I believe, valid purely for the carrot it would dangle in front of the likes of Georgia, but should not be limited to Italy. Connor O'Shea has been drafted in not just to get results on the pitch, but put long-term infrastructure in place that will develop players and a competitive team far into the future. The early noise is that progress is being made, and they have some young, actually Italian (as opposed to imported Australian or Kiwi) attacking players such as Michele Campagnaro and Carlo Canna who are extremely talented and could be the lynch pins of a team, post-Parisse. The battle for the wooden spoon will certainly not be short of quality. The danger is that their best players get injured early doors: they simply do not have the depth of other nations.

*Hands. Fucking. Down.

5. Scotland

And ditto for Scotland. About the emerging talent, not the good food, although I am partial to a bit of haggis. Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg, Johnnie Gray; make no mistake, these boys can play.* As with Italy, the confidence is starting to grow, though they do not yet have the results to show for their hard work. England and France away are tough assignments but Scotland will fancy anyone at home, where they can simply wheel out Telfer to growl intelligibly at the opposition until they are bemused enough to not notice that the game has started. If there is one difference between this Scotland and previous versions, it is the attitude that if they're going to lose, then they're damn well going to go down fighting and trying to score tries running it through the backs. It's refreshing to see, and good for the game.

*Don't worry: there will be no more rhyming.

6. Wales

A strangely absent force from European rugby in the last couple of years, given the talent in their ranks. Wales were past masters at the old, powerful, bash-it-up style of play, so much so that it was even named after their coach, so maybe it should not be so much of a surprise that an adaptation to heads up rugby has come as a slight culture shock. A summer tour to New Zealand is an unforgiving task when you need to get results as a side, but for all the intent they showed on that tour they were then stodgy in the autumn. Like pudding,* or some bricks in a bucket of custard. The task facing Rob Howley will be to unleash the likes of Scott Williams on a regular basis, and the question then becomes the best fly-half to do that. Dan Biggar is a fine player, but running with his head up is not his best quality and Sam Davies has been keeping him out of the Ospreys team, which takes some doing. Whatever the combination they settle on, you'd expect an improvement from the autumn.  

*The good kind, with suet. Not the American kind.

So who's going to win? It's difficult to see a Grand Slam, but then people say that most years and there usually is one. The law of averages tells me England have to lose sooner or later and they have 2 tough away games. Ireland will be without Sexton for at least one game. Matches could be decided on one genuine accident and the needless reach of a crimson card from a referees pocket. Tricky, but I'm sticking my neck out and backing...

England, on points, potentially of the bonus variety.